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Dorchester Center, MA 02124
The Greater Toronto Area is at a crossroads; it is facing the prospect of a deepening housing crisis that threatens the stability and growth of our communities.
Last week, BILD released the third edition of its Municipal Benchmarking Study and it demonstrates that without bold steps by government and industry, housing availability will get far worse in the years ahead with housing starts failing to keep pace with population growth.
BILD commissions Altus Group Economic Consulting to undertake a municipal benchmarking study for the GTA every two years. The study provides a pulse check on the health of the planning system for residential housing, and how municipal processes, approval timelines, as well as fees and charges, impact housing supply and affordability across the GTA.
It looks at 16 GTA municipalities and during study development, municipalities are invited to provide data that underpins the analysis. This year, 13 municipalities provided data and for the balance, Altus constructed a data set using publicly available information. This year’s study is based on the most robust data sample yet, its conclusions are stark and should be seen as a bright red, check-engine warning light on the region’s dashboard.
The first conclusion of the report is that growth in housing stock is not keeping pace with population growth. While this is hardly a surprise for residents, the scale of the gap is startling.
The gap between housing starts and population growth in the GTA is the widest it has been in over 50 years, since 1972. This imbalance is not just a statistic — it translates to real people and families struggling to find homes they can afford and young professionals being pushed out of the market.
Second, the report shows that while there were marginal improvements in municipal timelines, it still takes far too long to approve new housing in the region. Currently, it takes an average of 20 months for a single municipal approval for new housing in the GTA.
This is an improvement of two months, and while trending slightly better, it is important to remember that a housing development usually requires multiple applications and the 2024 study was a full post-pandemic sample, meaning improvements were to be expected. Approval delays add substantial costs to new homes with the study revealing that each month of delay adds $2,673 to $5,576 in added cost per unit per month depending on housing type and municipality. Based on average approval time frames, this adds between $43,000 and $90,000 to the cost of a new home.
Third, the report demonstrates that municipal fees and charges added to new housing are continuing their eye-watering upward trajectory. In the GTA, fees, taxes and charges from all levels of government account for almost 25 per cent of the cost of a new home for the new homebuyer. Municipal fees and charges are over half that figure.
According to the study, in the last two years alone, municipal fees rose by an average of $42,000 per unit on lowrise developments and $32,000 on highrise units since 2022. On average, municipal fees now add $122,387 to the cost of a condominium and $164,920 to the cost of a single-family home in the GTA. In the most expensive jurisdiction in the report, that figure is $157,643 added to the cost of a condominium and $225,627 to the cost of a single-family home.
Lastly, and probably most concerning, the report highlights a serious decline in development applications, which foreshadows a further deterioration of housing supply. The level of development applications is an indicator of the health of the pipeline and a drop in applications indicates less future supply in the pipeline.
This decline is symptomatic of the cost-to-build crisis we are facing — that is to say it has gotten too expensive to build new housing that the market can readily absorb. Over time, cost of labour, materials and land will adjust, but to have the pipeline of housing drying up at a time when mortgage rates are declining and buyers are coming back off the sidelines, is a harbinger of future inventory shortfalls and price appreciation.
All of this to say: the time for bold action on housing is now.
This is not merely a housing issue, but a matter of economic health and community well-being. Failing to address these challenges now means risking a future where our cities become increasingly unaffordable, diverse communities dwindle and economic growth is stifled.
Material costs, labour costs and land are market-driven. All the immediate levers to address the issues facing the GTA housing market are within the wheelhouse of government. It is critically imperative that it takes bold and decisive steps today to streamline the approval process for new housing, cut through the red tape and reduce the overall tax burden it is placing on new homebuyers.